Leisure futures: a hybrid approach integrating generative AI and design futures

You’re listening to “Leisure futures: a hybrid approach integrating generative AI and design futures,” by M. Bevolo and D. Draeger. Published in 2025.

ISSN: 2224-3534 (Print) 2415-5152 (Online) Journal homepage: the linked source

Marco Bevolo & Dennis Draeger

To cite this article: Marco Bevolo & Dennis Draeger (2025) Leisure futures: a hybrid approach integrating generative AI and design futures, Research in Hospitality Management, 15:1, 77-83, DOI: 10.1080/22243534.2025.2450334

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Published online: 04 Mar 2025.

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RESEARCH ARTICLE

Leisure futures: a hybrid approach integrating generative AI and design futures

Marco Bevolo1 & Dennis Draeger2 1Design Futures, World University of Design, India 2Research, Shaping Tomorrow, London, United Kingdom and Napier, New Zealand

Abstract.

This article aims to establish a foundation for the vocational and applied study of the possible, probable and preferable futures of the leisure industries. It does so by presenting a novel methodological approach, integrating state-of-the-art generative AI (GenAI) created content within actionable formats, with a design futures approach and process, validated by several industry awards by, for example, market research organisation ESOMAR in the early 2000s.

In this article, the authors propose to merge the novelty of GenAI with the constructivist tradition of design futures in a hybrid approach to leisure futures in a system including: archetypal scenarios, to structure future potentials of scenarios at macro-level, to orientate possibilities, probabilities and preferable futures; a quadrants tool, based on design futures principles and practices, but based on AI-generated archetypal scenarios, enabling the mapping of leisure cards in participatory workshops; and leisure cards, to generate signals and manifestations of leisure futures, offering the possibility to include hallucinations that inspire liminal hypercreativity in any forecast.

By presenting this approach, the authors aim at establishing a first foundation of a systematic exploration of leisure futures, to be further developed at scientific and applicative levels of vision, methods and outcome in the form of signals and trends.

Introduction.

As Bouwer and Van Leeuwen (2017) subtitled Philosophy of Leisure, leisure might be seen as the “foundation of the good life”. Without the ambition to further engage in any theoretical exploration, this article aims at establishing a foundation for the vocational and applied study of the possible, probable and preferable futures of the leisure industries. It does so by presenting a novel methodological approach, integrating state-of-the-art generative AI (GenAI) created content within actionable formats, with a design futures approach and process, validated by several industry awards by, for example, the market research organisation ESOMAR in the early 2000s.

In this article, we merge the novelty of GenAI with the constructivist tradition of design futures in a hybrid approach to leisure futures in a system, including:

Archetypal scenarios, to structure possible, probable and preferable futures through leisure-referred scenarios;

A quadrants tool, based on design futures principles and practices, but also based on AI-generated archetypal scenarios, enabling the mapping of leisure cards in participatory workshops: and

Leisure cards, to generate signals and manifestations of leisure futures offering the possibility to include hallucinations that inspire liminal hypercreativity in any forecast.

The opportunities with GenAI systems will demand the design of calibrated and validated hybrid processes where machines and humans interact in fruitful hybrid ways of working, e.g. combining the efficiencies of large language models (LLMs) with the benefits of participatory constructivism. There are earlier reflexive exercises to integrate GenAI and design futures. Here, we propose a process that builds upon these general discourses and reflexive experiences.

Defining “leisure”

As Bouwer and Van Leeuwen (2017) extrapolated from various sources in historical literature, “leisure” might be identified as whatever activity is performed by humans in their free time, as they see fit, without any obligation.

Philosophically, an answer might be articulated in terms of meaning-making between freedom and constraint, with deeper historical and philosophical roots, first and foremost in Western civilisation. Sociologically, leisure challenges our societies at various levels, such as ethical and identity-related priorities. Leisure practices, which are the behavioural and cultural foundation of leisure industries, require representation in the context of social power in the everyday, based on the notion of an enabling, therefore necessary, surplus of time and wealth.

Correspondence: the email address

The role of technology

Leisure is a complex philosophical, sociocultural and economic concept, where technology plays a key enabling role. For example, at the sociocultural level, electric and electronic domestic devices are technologies that create free time, replacing human labour in those hours which were once planned as domestic work or family care. Furthermore, technology is instrumental to the design and delivery of those enabling conditions for innovative experiences, both physically and virtually, being those meaningful experiences designed to fulfil individual and group interests in one’s free time. Looking at economic domains like attractions and theme parks, or urban events, as prominent examples, the impact of technology on leisure might be described as pervasive and ultimately necessary.

One might also observe how notions of leisure evolve by socio-technological emergence of new opportunities, e.g. the new hybrid domain of “phygital”, which enables the blurring of leisure with other sociocultural domains, e.g. work in “bleisure” travel planning.

Operationalising “leisure” as an open concept

We, while being fully aware of the scientific complexity of this domain, both at multidisciplinary academic level and in industry-applicative terms, operationally opted in this viewpoint article for an open definition of what leisure is, leaving space for the inclusion of any constituency, e.g. abnormal leisure or serious leisure. Leisure studies are in a dynamic state of constant re-definition and re-imagination. At an economic and enterprise level, “leisure industries” include wider notions of attractions, entertainment, events and popular culture, with the potential to generate income in the form of profit, while performing its essential sociocultural function within communities, from past to futures (Bevolo & van Stiphout, 2018), from the collective imaginary to the concrete reality of cities.

The challenge for both scholars and applied researchers is therefore to identify a unified definition of what “leisure” is, where a definition of what “leisure industries” are might follow. In this article, in line with earlier published and peer reviewed research on the future of business events, we opted instead for an open conceptualisation of “leisure” enabling a de facto scoping of the field of investigation, namely “leisure” and “leisure industries”, to be shaped by the empirical response of GenAI. We therefore opted for the adoption of “leisure” as a generic conceptualisation, as an open semantic field of potential meaning-making to be investigated and defined. This is because the space of future opportunities, options and challenges might be more productively investigated and imagined leaving behind any reductionist synthesis.

Therefore, we took an agnostic position, where we directed the research resources and tools, namely a proprietary algorithm leveraging a GenAI system to perform its automated analysis of all potential facets of this complex field. Consequently, one might see that “leisure industries” are those economic activities where enterprises and not-for-profit organisations offer enabling conditions, physical structures, hybrid or online platforms, sociocultural frameworks and value propositions to experience leisure time as recreational, regenerative and, at best, meaningful.

Research question

One might conclude from the above bibliographic review and reflection that leisure is a complex field in constant conceptual and sociocultural evolution where technology plays a key enabling role. This viewpoint article aims at proposing a justified, actionable and repeatable process to address the following research question:

• What is a repeatable approach to anticipate possible, probable and preferable futures of leisure, both from sociocultural and business viewpoints?

It would exceed the purpose and the limiting conditions of this specific viewpoint format to report any empirical research to test the sketched approach and the proposed process, therefore we will propose a justified and actionable approach to be fully equipped to address the actual underlying question on what the futures of leisure are, hence testing, validating and optimising the approach.

Methodology.

To pursue the methodological ambition behind this article, two research pillars of different epistemological nature were assimilated into a novel hybrid approach:

• Foresight, as emerging from industry practice, based on design futures, within the constructivist, participatory epistemology; and

• Automated foresight, as enabled by the latest generation of GenAI.

These two research practices contributed to design a structured approach where GenAI input is highly integrated, enabling participatory mapping of signals into trends, as is often the case in design futures. Parameters for the shaping of tools presented here were derived from: a) foresight theory; based on b) reflexivity on the automated foresight practice by one author; and c) from a design futures awarded portfolio, namely the Philips Design Strategic Futures, specifically from their CultureScan, established by the other author and his team since 1999.

Foresight: selecting a framework with universal acceptance

From the viewpoint of foresight, the choice on Dator’s scenario archetypes was based on a mix of “trained judgement” and a careful bibliographic review. In general terms, since the late 1960s, the work by Dator has been seminal in scoping the field of futures research. For example, his legacy might be appreciated in his monograph reporting on an anthology of his historical publications. As Dator (2002) himself described, his vision and methodology was developed during his long-term tenure at his “Manoa School” at the University of Hawaii.

Dator began developing the archetypal scenarios in the late 1970s, consolidating their functional benefits of applicative efficiency and conceptual effectiveness by practice, over time, until their final description in terms of both definitions and applicative procedures. Of course, we also evaluated critical reflections specifically challenging Dator’s archetypal scenarios with new methodological proposals, e.g. based on science fiction cinema and less critical alternative options, e.g. from a sociopolitical perspective, or from an economic post-Anthropocene perspective, rooted in a holistic vision.

After this focused bibliographic review, with the specific conclusion that the attempts by Fergnani and Song (2020) to challenge Dator’s approach (2009) reiterated the epistemological robustness of said archetypal scenarios, we concluded that Dator’s tool represents a standard in the foresight field, and therefore a valid reference with universal acceptance in terms of validity.

Design futures: mapping as constructivist practice

Reference for this article is the Visual Trend Analysis mapping tool, at the heart of the CultureScan methodology as created in the early 2000s by one of the authors as a director on the Philips design team. According to the CultureScan principles, this tool enables the participatory mapping of signals and manifestations. For this purpose, signals and manifestations are identified by scanning relevant sources seeking manifestations of trend relevant phenomena, therefore eligible to be converted into weak signals, to be captured in cards.

Technology: operationalising GenAI

Technologically, we employed an online platform that is specifically designed for strategic foresight. In 2013, the platform began automating horizon scanning using natural language processing (NLP), a subset of artificial intelligence (AI). In 2018, the same platform began automating the categorisation of its NLP output into scenario outlines. Independent research reflexively validated how this platform could be useful for strategic foresight and design futures. Now, as we posit in a forthcoming peer-reviewed essay on GenAI as liminal creativity, the platform uses GenAI to turn the NLP output into scenario narratives, mind maps and images.

In operational terms, we searched Leisure on this platform and clicked the New Model button under the Modeller tool. The Modeller opened a separate tab with a mind map that can function similarly to a systems model, hence the name Modeller. The output of the Modeller relies on GenAI using the online sources that are auto-extracted by the platform as its research foundation. Then, we hovered over the dropdown list at the top of the screen called Uncertainties and clicked Scenarios.

By leveraging ChatGPT through such proprietary IT tools as developed by one of us, the internet was scanned with the critically reviewed outcome of this article semantically based on automated GenAI output. As a bibliographic justification for this specific methodology, a similar open approach was methodologically designed, tested and successfully validated at an earlier stage by one of us.

Findings.

The resulting approach proposed comprises three specific assets:

1) Archetypal scenarios, to structure leisure.

futures scenarios at macro-level, to orientate possibilities, probabilities, and preferable futures;

2) A quadrants tool, developed integrating AI-generated.

archetypal scenarios, based on design futures documented principles and awarded practices, enabling the mapping of leisure cards in participatory workshops; and

3) Leisure cards, to generate signals and manifestations.

of leisure futures, offering the possibility to include hallucinations which in creative industries can be characterised positively as inspiring liminal hypercreativity. This approach will be demonstrated in subsequent research projects.

Leisure futures — Step 1: The archetypal scenarios

Following the above operational steps, the mind map which relies on Jim Dator’s four scenario archetypes was generated (Figure 1). Then, we hovered over the Actions dropdown and clicked Four Scenarios which produced the following scenario narrative, which also relies on Jim Dator’s archetypes. This scenario narrative also supplies us with the NLP output (i.e. sources) that were used to create the scenarios and the Modeller. The automated scenario analysis, received as automated output, as detailed below (in italics to denote that this text was generated by GenAI at the click of a single button on the platform with no prompting required):

The Future of Leisure: An Analysis Through Scenario Archetypes

Introduction.

The leisure industry is seeing a dynamic shift as societal norms and economic landscapes evolve, informed by technologies, consumer behaviors [sic], and a post-pandemic recovery phase. Current literature highlights various trends including increased experiential spending, changes in travel patterns, and the impact of technology. Despite growth, challenges such as economic pressures and environmental concerns raise questions regarding the sustainability of these trends. Using a blend of credible sources, this report synthesizes these insights into four scenario archetypes: Continuation, Limits and Discipline, Decline and Collapse, and Transformation.

1. Continuation.

Under a Continuation scenario, the leisure industry is expected to maintain its trajectory of growth and expansion. The Indian Retailer (2024)1 reports a growing appetite for experiential spending, as more individuals plan to increase their travel frequency. This drive could be supported by a significant job growth within the American economy, where leisure and hospitality are forecast to contribute 23.1% of new jobs by 2031, suggesting continued investment and interest in this sector 2.

2. Limits and Discipline.

Faced with economic and environmental challenges, a Limits and Discipline scenario might emerge. For instance, in the Asia-Pacific region, leisure spending is predicted to remain below pre-pandemic levels, indicating economic caution and market limitations (Focus on Travel News, 2023)3. Additionally, AlixPartners suggests a drop in discretionary entertainment spending, prompting consumers to possibly exercise more fiscal discipline in leisure pursuits 4.

3. Decline and Collapse.

In the scenario of Decline and Collapse, constraints become pressures that the industry cannot withstand, leading to a loss of market vitality. The complications from high interest rates, as noted in Travel Weekly (2023)5, may reduce consumer travel in specific areas, signaling [sic] possible downturns in regional leisure domains. Furthermore, consumers might reduce spending in leisure due to economic pressures, potentially leading to a contraction in the sector 6.

4. Transformation.

Transformation may be driven by technological advancements and societal shifts. Digital leisure activities could see dramatic growth, with spending projected to reach $23 trillion by 2030, reflecting a significant shift in how leisure is consumed and experienced 7. Meanwhile, blended travel, which merges leisure and business travel, continues to expand, supported by remote work trends, offering new market dynamics and opportunities for innovation 8.

The four archetypal scenarios are grounded in GenAI and have specific validity for the leisure business sectors. The next step is to leverage them to structure a repeatable, participatory leisure futures approach within a dedicated and actionable tool.

Leisure futures — Step 2: The design futures quadrants tool Within a design futures framework, a tool was designed to operationally integrate and make actionable the archetypal scenarios. Within this approach, they were leveraged as a starting point for tool design and therefore conceptually converted into the constituencies of the quadrants tool for trend analysis. The leisure futures quadrants tool was designed for this purpose (Figure 2).

The leisure futures quadrants tool is based on the CultureScan toolbox, as introduced above. The four leisure futures quadrants of the proposed tool (maturation, innovation, mitigation and exploitation) are, however, not generic, but specifically based on cross-referencing Dator’s archetypal scenarios. Such reference to Dator’s archetypes is direct and combinatory, as presented below to define each quadrant:

• Maturation straddles the growth and discipline scenarios. While a domain may be growing in this quadrant, it is growing conservatively with little change or disruption;

• Innovation falls between growth and transformation. Here, the economy is growing rapidly off the back of innovations that encourage public interest and economic growth;

• Mitigation is the combination of a discipline scenario with a collapse scenario. The key issues are about minimising risk and harm amid the downturn; and

• Between collapse and transformation, exploitation seeks the opportunities caused during periods of disruption and upheaval.

The outcome of such mapping, operated in workshop sessions, is the visual clustering of said signals and manifestations into potential trends. The mutual positioning of these trends within the conceptual landscape scoped by the archetypal scenarios, now embedded in the tool axis and embodied by the quadrants, enables the constructivist sketching, discussing and consensus-forming of possible, probable and preferable hypotheses, as shared among leisure futures workshop participants.

Leisure Futures — Step 3: The leisure futures GenAI cards Where, in the early 2000s, the collection, analysis and synthesis conversion of signals into trends and of manifestations into relevant signals were based on “trained judgement”, with some elements of “genius forecasting” at play, we posit that GenAI may generate meaningful manifestations as weak signals of futures development, with the necessary contextual information required. To fuel leisure futures workshops framed within archetypal scenarios, the approach proposed here therefore merges GenAI and design futures in the format where signals and manifestations are captured to be activated, namely the leisure futures cards. The cards are GenAI created by the platform with no prompting created or viewed by us, as inspired by the archetypal scenarios.

The cards provide a synthesis of noteworthy weak signals, from (unlikely, yet disruptive) wild cards to (expected, in continuity) trend manifestations. We propose a sample of how this format concretely looks, as shown in Figure 3.

As based on existing design futures experience, the recurring format will enable ease of use and intuitive adoption. The cards clearly state the signals and manifestations, reveal one of the sources used in developing the list of trends, and provide deeper insight on the topic. Following the taxonomy of futures by Bishop and Hines (2012), each card states an optimistic (therefore, preferable) future, a pessimistic (therefore, plausible) future, a present uncertainty about the topic (therefore critically impacting probabilities), a suggested course of action, and a strategic question for users to consider. GenAI will enable at the same time novelty and freshness of content, as based on the real time scanning of the internet by AI.

Conclusion: limiting conditions and future research

By presenting this futures research actionable approach, we aim at establishing a first foundation of a systematic exploration of leisure futures, to be further developed at scientific and applicative levels of vision, methods and outcome in the form of signals and trends, with the intent and a plan to further develop leisure futures in forthcoming peer-reviewed submissions, applied academic research and commercial projects. Limiting conditions exist in view of the nature of this viewpoint article, determining the need for future research to be conducted to test, validate and optimise the process.

We plan to do so according to a systematic plan of research commitments, with triangulation between LLM-driven phases, e.g. automated generation of a first set of leisure futures cards, human-driven phases, e.g. student-led generation of a second set of leisure futures cards, and workshop sessions to test the validity and proficiency of the methodology. In the course of 2025, we intend to conduct this triangulation and implementation exercise as an introduction to submission of peer-reviewed papers based on findings and insights, to both futures journals and leisure journals, to then perform further dissemination and validation in major leisure conferences.

Notes

1. How to Start a Cosmetic Business in India.

Indian Retailer. Publication date: 3 July 2024. the linked source retail-business/beauty-wellness/how-start-cosmetic-business-india-2024

2. 15 of the most profitable businesses in 2023.

Yahoo Finance. Publication

3. 2024’s Travel Boom: What’s Driving the Surge? Focus on Travel.

News. Publication date: 22 November 2023. the linked source tours/47460-why-spain-france-turkey-to-lead-2024-s-travel-boom

4. AlixPartners Forecasts Tightened Belts in 2024.

Yahoo News. Publication date: 19 December 2023. the linked source

5. Global air fares “set to stabilise” in 2024, Amex GBT predicts.

Travel

Weekly. Publication date: 7 December 2023. the linked source news/air/global-air-fares-set-to-stabilise-in-2024-amex-bgt-predicts? escapedfragment=

6. UK: The Critical Consumer In 2024. alixpartners.

Publication date: 3

January 2024. the linked source the-critical-consumer-in-2024-

7. 15 big ideas that will revolutionize industries and economies, led by AI.

ZDNet. Publication date: 6 February 2024. the linked source article/15-big-ideas-that-will-revolutionize-industries-and-economies-led-by-ai/

8. Ask Skift: What Are Key Trends in Blended Travel? Skift.

Publication date: 25 September 2024. the linked source ask-skift-what-are-trends-in-blended-travel/

Acknowledgements.

We declare that no financial sponsoring existed in the design, performance and reporting of the research functional to the writing and editing of this article, which was conducted with academic and professional integrity. Dennis Draeger, is the Foresight Director for Shaping Tomorrow, the platform which was used to generate the findings. However, every attempt was made to maintain objectivity about these findings and the presentation of the platform thanks in part to Marco Bevolo’s oversight.

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